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September 16, 2021

As Angela Merkel prepares to leave office, Germany’s power and influence in European — and global — affairs has been indisputable. Now she’s leaving office after 16 years, many Europeans believe the country’s “golden age” is over — including a majority of Germans, according to a recent poll.

The survey, conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank in 12 EU countries in early summer with the results published this week, found that Europeans still regard Merkel as a unifying force, and expect Germany to continue to provide leadership within the EU. Nonetheless, there is pessimism at home and abroad about Germany’s post-Merkel future.

The poll found that many Europeans view Germany as a declining power — no more so than in Germany, where a majority (52%) hold the view that their country is past its “golden age.” Only 15% of respondents in Germany said they believe their country is still in its “golden age” today, with 9% of respondents believing that it is still to come.

Across Europe more broadly, a third of Europeans (34%) surveyed said that Germany’s star is fading, 21% said it is in its “golden age” today, and just 10% believed this period is in the future. The data highlights uncertainty in both Germany and its neighbors over the future of the country, and its de facto leadership of the EU, once Merkel leaves office after the federal election on Sept. 26.

Merkel Vs. Macron

Despite some controversial policies, Merkel, age 67, is leaving office on her terms. She remains a popular figurehead in Europe, and far more so than her French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, although analysts expect Macron to try to fill something of a leadership vacuum left by Merkel.

When the ECFR asked respondents who they would vote for in a hypothetical contest between Germany’s Merkel and France’s Macron for an EU president role, the think tank found a majority of Europeans (41%) would vote for Merkel, and just 14% would vote for Macron (the remaining 45% said they didn’t know, or wouldn’t vote).

The highest support for Merkel in this hypothetical election was found in the Netherlands (58%), Spain (57%) and Portugal (52%). Even among the French, 32% would vote for Merkel and 20% for Macron.

It is perhaps not surprising that there is such an enduring fondness for Merkel. She is seen as a stable pair of hands, pragmatic and cool-headed in a crisis — and she’s had a few of those to deal with in her time in office.

Merkel has guided Germany, the eurozone, and the wider EU through several traumas including the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone that peaked around 2012, and the migration crisis of 2015-2016. Most recently, she has played a prominent role in Europe’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, and along with Macron oversaw the EU recovery plan.

Analyst View

Chancellor Angela Merkel has indeed made an indelible mark on the world stage and as an effective leader of her country and the Euro Zone in the last 16 years. She has led Germany a country of over 83 million to be the largest economy in the Euro and the fourth biggest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $3.86 Trillion and growth rate of 0.6%. Her successor will definitely have a big space to cover.