Russian Roses For Ukraine, The US And The Western Allies. Can This Happen?
February 14, 2022
The Valentine season is here and it is a season characterized by love, peace, friendliness, sharing, and goodwill. It is a season to make everybody happy, jettison tensions and sheath the swords of controversies.
It is a time to wish individuals, corporates and nationalities Happy Valentine's day!
The tension between Russia and Ukraine is now at a seething point and the Western nations are calling for peace, equity, the honour of the choice of a people and respect of national boundaries. The latent altercation has now accelerated to a boiling point and steaming to a point of conflagration that can blow up at the face of the mediating and interested parties.
The best Valentine gift that can be gifted to the nation of Ukraine now is for Vladimir Putin to give the Russian diplomatic roses and a handshake of love to the Western democracies that have been calling for a calm and diplomatic solution to the effervescent crisis. It may be wishful thinking but if it becomes a reality is for the good of the comity of nations.
Putin has repeatedly said that he has no plan to invade Ukraine and that the current tension is just a western 'hysteria'. However, the amassing of over 100,000 soldiers near the Russian and Ukrainian border with the latest assault arsenals in a ready-to-shoot mode is an understatement of an invasion alert.
Why the seething Crisis? The ongoing crisis unequivocally is the biggest since the Cold War that took place after World war 2, from 1947 to 1991. It is expected that the world should be mature and wiser to avert the re-occurence and colossal loss of lives and economic values that took place during the cold war.
The cold war fan the embers of global insecurity, aggressive military actions, leadership changes and generally geopolitical instabilities which fueled economic hardship, proxy wars, propaganda for global dominance and ultimately dissolution and fragmentation of the defunct Soviet Union republic.
Putin's leadership style more or less underpin the desire to assert control over the eastern political bloc with no inch of western incursions through the establishment of NATO military base near its borders. However, the current Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky favours a relationship with the west overbuilding closer ties with Russia.
Consequences of the Invasion Russia’s economy depends on Oil and Gas export for over 40% of its revenue, this easily brings the $11 billion Nordstream 2 gas project as a potential object of sanction. Russian banks and financial institutions may also be alienated from the international financial system which will make financial transactions between Russia and the rest of the world difficult. Russians particularly the elite and political class will suffer a travel ban and some of their assets may be frozen.
The US and its allies have issued travel warnings to their citizens and most embassy staff are being evacuated from Ukraine. If Russia should weaponise gas sales to Europe then energy costs will hit the roof again for the region.
Vladimir Putin will deserve a Nobel prize for Peace if he can allow the voice of reason and sheath his swords and call off his ambition or pre-determined invasion plans against Ukraine. The Ukrainer leader Volodymyr Zelensky deserve every respect for standing strong on behalf of his people and aspiring to the tenets of democracy.
Will Putin wave the Olive branch and present Valentine’s garland of roses to Ukraine and a hand of fellowship to the rest of the world?
The next few days will determine whether Vladimir Putin will etch his name in history as a key actor that averts one of the most controversial intercontinental altercations that will eventually isolate, ostracise and bring his country down on its belly.
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